Why Samaras wants early elections?
The instinct of political survival and self-preservation will prevail and the prime minister will lead the country - albeit implicitly - in early elections, now that the difference of the electoral rate with SYRIZA is still manageable.
By Kostas Tsitounas
The political paradox of recent days is summarized in the following conclusion: the plans and visions of Antonis Samaras are not consistent with his moves.
This is because the prime minister claims that the appropriate solution now, is to have a consensus on the election of the President of Republic, to change the electoral law, to make the Revision of the Constitution, with a deal with lenders, and to proceed to elections during 2015.
The above scenario may sound good, but stumbles on common sense. If Samaras did not wanted early elections would certainly not suggest Mr. Stavros Dimas!
The Prime Minister knows very well that if we do not proceed to early elections, he will be forced to make the agreement with lenders and to take the blame for the new painful measures.
At the same time, if we go in elections in the autumn of 2015, in a political climate of polarization and long wear, there is a risk that SYRIZA will have the electoral majority, by far more than 12 units from ND.
Such a significant difference verging on political suicide for Samaras, since immediately will be raised the issue of leadership change in ND.
The ND leader wants elections now, because so far the percentage difference with SYRIZA is manageable ... If the gap rises above 6-7%, the situation will be irreversible.
And because history has shown that the instinct for the survival of the party and him, precedes all other circumstances, is more than certain that Antonis Samaras wants early elections!
A manageable defeat will keep Samaras and ND in the game.
Common sense says that whoever wins the election takes the popular mandate for the negotiations with the Troika.
This of course is a double-edged knife for Alexis Tsipras, since it is certain that he would prefer to find an agreement signed by Samaras and Venizelos, in order to be able to claim to lenders that he did not sign and so does not recognize anything whatsoever.
In such a case, Mr. Tsipras would have the advantage in the continuation of the negotiations, something that will not apply in the event that within the next few days we will go to early elections.
The "bad" scenario for SYRIZA is very close, if the polls will be confirmed.
The party which certainly does not want early elections is the government's partner, PASOK, which owes its existence in its participation in the management of power and only to this.
Mr. Venizelos knows very well that his removal from the government will create major problems within the party and disruptive tendencies from the opposing force, ie from George Papandreou.
That is why in recent days people of Vangelis Venizelos have started flirting with SYRIZA ...
None of the above is not surprising, for the skilled political analysts. Besides, in politics there is no straight road...
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