The sudden death scenario

The sudden death scenario

Cold shower for the coalition - Rapid heartbeat for the opposition - The scenario of the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister.

By Vasilis Vasilopoulos

The government has decided to close the new agreement with the troika, trying to avoid extension or new memorandum, with the known process of "sudden death", ie the Express Vote in the House. This resembles a unilateral decision of Samaras and Venizelos, to include Members of the majority to an "ice bucket" challenge, which will mean the depletion of their political career.

This will not be a sacrifice of the MPs of the coalition, but a cold shower. Nor will be a voluntary participation in the rescue of any new agreement, especially when for three months, they had been advised to visit their regions, proclaiming the end of the Memorandum and the exemption from new measures.
The logic "we voted these measures but were not implemented" is not convincing the Legislature, and is causing differential issues at this delicate stage, when clustering is necessary for the presidential election.

Obviously Members when asked to legislate, recognize the joint responsibility of the policy, but as they acknowledge when discussing a relaxed atmosphere, they feel that their career is in risk, with the last requirement to vote a number of very painful measures affecting pension funds, private sector and civil servants.
The parameter of deviations is not at all negligible, as according to polls PASOK has increased mobility on the occasion of Papandreou initiatives and this is obvious in the questions addressed to the citizens, in the ongoing public opinion surveys.

At the same time, the opposition in the House realizes the huge question that may be asked to manage in case that the day after the elections will involve in any way in the Legislature Body of the parliament.

This certainly applies to SYRIZA, who is anxiously watching the peculiar dialogue of its leader with the foreigners. It is certain that they are watching this relationship of mutual understanding, which is attempted by Alexis Tsipras with investors and foreign governments, with some embarrassment.

However, Mr. Tsipras says in the newspaper "Vima of Sunday", with attitude of tomorrow's prime minister, that he is not under any test, by the funds. He asks for a haircut only from the official sector OSI (IMF, ECB, ESM and governments of 27), who owns 83% of Greek debt and that for the first period it will not come out in the markets. The message is clear and designed to reassure and to ensure that there will be no more problems from the factors which regulate the markets.

This shows that he wants to make a confrontational negotiation, with political way with our creditors partners in the EU and especially with the eurozone. In this way, he identifies, more clearly than the current government, the nature of political negotiation that seeks the next day.

In any case, when numbers are involved, the role of politics is secondary and this is undesirable for a new leadership. Besides, SYRIZA has realize that since troika has rejected a political solution, it is possible that the government will try to attempt to implement this solution within various approaches such as the combination of the new aid package with the election of President of the Republic. Recall that they have proposed not to close the House in December.

The relevant scenario is predicted by Koumoundouros. Mr. Tsipras said that even if the government finds 180 MPs for the President, Samaras and Venizelos are going to bring the new agreement with the Troika, as a package.

For now, they avoid to comment about a government plan concerning a political thriller or a major national issue, although accept that anything is possible when the government will see that the partners have stopped supporting it after the passing of the "hard package".